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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ghost frogsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Bounty Hunter

Rubick
Rubick
ntakii · 19 games
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 17 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 15 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 13 games
69%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
NARMAN · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
ntakii · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
71%

Ghost frogs

Mirana
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
40%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 5 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
j4 · 4 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
j4 · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Tobi · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MiLAN · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
427 picks · 966 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
399 picks · 557 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 708 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 577 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
309 picks · 297 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
295 picks · 290 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
293 picks · 211 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
263 picks · 141 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:6
No Bounty Hunter 38%Ghost frogs 62%
The model gave 62% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinkAAN
47% · 43 games48% · 23 games
LifestealerCrystallis
Lifestealer
Tiny
Tinyntakii
45% · 47 games55% · 33 games
InvokerBor@nija
Invoker
Razor
RazorBliNcc
54% · 23 games50% · 135 games
MarsTobi
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFlash
43% · 120 games55% · 79 games
PhoenixMiLAN
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinNARMAN
58% · 85 games44% · 48 games
Snapfirej4
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct22:32
No Bounty Hunter 38%Ghost frogs 62%
The model gave 62% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightkAAN
47% · 7 games54% · 20 games
Phantom LancerCrystallis
Phantom Lancer
Void Spirit
Void Spiritntakii
53% · 171 game49% · 65 games
Ember SpiritBor@nija
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordBliNcc
53% · 31 game44% · 31 game
Dark SeerTobi
Dark Seer
Snapfire
SnapfireNARMAN
43% · 35 games48% · 110 games
Grimstrokej4
Grimstroke
Abaddon
AbaddonFlash
54% · 55 games50% · 73 games
RubickMiLAN
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 73%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2