Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 12 games
Leshracsignature
ILICH- · 9 games
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
Dark Willow
Yor · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Yor · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Arms · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
427 picks · 966 bans
Void Spirit
399 picks · 557 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 708 bans
Mars
338 picks · 577 bans
Grimstroke
309 picks · 297 bans
Earth Spirit
295 picks · 290 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 211 bans
Lion
263 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:22
Infamous 49%SG e-sports 51%
The model gave 51% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 26:39.
Game 2prediction correct44:17
Infamous 49%SG e-sports 51%
The model gave 51% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 38:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 51%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2