Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fightersloss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Into The Breachwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
Winter Wyvern
Xibbe · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
Chessie · 4 games
Rubick
Era · 4 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Charlie · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Era · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
432 picks · 966 bans
Void Spirit
401 picks · 560 bans
Death Prophet
359 picks · 709 bans
Mars
341 picks · 579 bans
Grimstroke
311 picks · 295 bans
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 291 bans
Tusk
294 picks · 209 bans
Lion
262 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 47%
Hero pool strength60% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:10
Chicken Fighters 70%Into The Breach 30%
The model gave 70% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 25:07.
Game 2prediction missed18:36
Chicken Fighters 70%Into The Breach 30%
The model gave 70% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 38:39.
Game 3prediction missed40:22
Chicken Fighters 70%Into The Breach 30%
The model gave 70% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 41:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 70%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3