i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 20 games
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 17 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
435 picks · 966 bans
Void Spirit
403 picks · 561 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 708 bans
Mars
343 picks · 580 bans
Grimstroke
308 picks · 297 bans
Earth Spirit
301 picks · 293 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 209 bans
Lion
262 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 68%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:32
LGD Gaming 42%Invictus Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 43:54.
Game 2prediction missed36:20
LGD Gaming 42%Invictus Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:33.
Game 3prediction missed28:17
LGD Gaming 42%Invictus Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 58%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3