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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 6 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Khezcute · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
435 picks · 968 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
402 picks · 563 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 709 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 582 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
308 picks · 299 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
302 picks · 294 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 208 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
262 picks · 140 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:15
Fnatic 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:37.
Game 2prediction correct30:17
Fnatic 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 32:18.
Game 3prediction correct20:19
Fnatic 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 51%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3