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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EHOMEwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 16 games
94%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
poyoyo · 9 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Dy · 9 games
78%

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 17 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 16 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 11 games
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 9 games
78%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 966 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
401 picks · 563 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 706 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 582 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
308 picks · 299 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
301 picks · 294 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 207 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
262 picks · 140 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:36
Vici Gaming 50%EHOME 50%
The model gave 50% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOri
54% · 16 games45% · 208 games
PuckXm
Puck
Juggernaut
Juggernautpoyoyo
60% · 69 games53% · 23 games
SpectreSylar
Spectre
Mars
MarsELeVeN
52% · 109 games45% · 36 games
Centaur WarrunnerChalice
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
51% · 101 game46% · 48 games
Dark WillowFrisk
Dark Willow
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
48% · 31 game55% · 11 games
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct36:18
Vici Gaming 51%EHOME 49%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 29:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenpoyoyo
57% · 3 games38% · 36 games
UrsaSylar
Ursa
Slardar
SlardarELeVeN
46% · 7 games52% · 45 games
TimbersawChalice
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void SpiritOri
52% · 113 games45% · 23 games
Dark SeerXm
Dark Seer
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
47% · 34 games56% · 52 games
Shadow ShamanFrisk
Shadow Shaman
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDy
50% · 46 games55% · 47 games
Elder TitanxNova
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct28:40
Vici Gaming 48%EHOME 52%
The model gave 52% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 43:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
52% · 54 games38% · 64 games
UrsaXm
Ursa
Mars
MarsOri
40% · 64 games61% · 15 games
MagnusSylar
Magnus
Doom
DoomELeVeN
54% · 9 games57% · 35 games
Dark SeerChalice
Dark Seer
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPyw
51% · 66 games53% · 73 games
Elder TitanFrisk
Elder Titan
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
52% · 22 games62% · 28 games
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 51%
Series resultEHOME 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3