Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 14 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 6 games
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 5 games
Abaddon
woMy · 4 games
Iooften banned
db- · 4 games
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 7 games
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Force · 4 games
Disruptor
343 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
434 picks · 968 bans
Void Spirit
402 picks · 563 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 706 bans
Mars
342 picks · 583 bans
Grimstroke
308 picks · 299 bans
Earth Spirit
301 picks · 294 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 207 bans
Lion
263 picks · 140 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect