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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 64 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 51 game
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 46 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 39 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 39 games
64%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Crystallis · 32 games
59%

Team Liquid

Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 25 games
56%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 18 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 18 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
560 picks · 916 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 404 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 657 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
483 picks · 617 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 885 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
380 picks · 614 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 510 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
359 picks · 217 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total61% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:27
MOUZ 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
49% · 76 games46% · 52 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Rubick
RubickMidOne
48% · 40 games44% · 85 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
50% · 61 game59% · 55 games
ViperNisha
Viper
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
56% · 72 gameslittle data
LargotOfu
Largo
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageyamich
40% · 76 games56% · 133 games
RingmasterBoxi
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct28:11
MOUZ 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 26:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
54% · 177 games63% · 54 games
ClinkzmiCKe
Clinkz
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
44% · 145 games49% · 243 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
48% · 169 games48% · 125 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
47% · 248 games61% · 34 games
Treant ProtectortOfu
Treant Protector
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeryamich
45% · 70 games48% · 353 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed17:38
MOUZ 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
52% · 229 games54% · 146 games
MuertamiCKe
Muerta
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
51% · 277 games48% · 253 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
53% · 259 games52% · 216 games
MarsAce
Mars
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
50% · 155 games46% · 195 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Dazzle
DazzleSeleri
48% · 189 games46% · 299 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 61%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3