Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Phoenix Gaming
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Xwy · 6 games
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
Grimstroke
zzq · 6 games
Lion
pLAnet · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
436 picks · 977 bans
Void Spirit
407 picks · 565 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 707 bans
Mars
348 picks · 584 bans
Grimstroke
307 picks · 299 bans
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 208 bans
Lion
256 picks · 140 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total73% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:10
Team MagMa 27%Phoenix Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 31:31.
Game 2prediction correct27:36
Team MagMa 27%Phoenix Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 42:43.
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 73%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2