Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoTechiesloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoTechies
Marsoften banned
Malik · 7 games
Witch Doctor
Solo · 7 games
Earthshaker
Zayac · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 5 games
Bounty Hunter
Zayac · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 4 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malik · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 4 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
435 picks · 980 bans
Void Spirit
405 picks · 568 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 707 bans
Mars
347 picks · 585 bans
Grimstroke
309 picks · 294 bans
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
300 picks · 206 bans
Lion
256 picks · 138 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:55
NoTechies 23%HellRaisers 77%
The model gave 77% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 54:30.
Game 2prediction correct16:44
NoTechies 23%HellRaisers 77%
The model gave 77% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 30:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 77%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2