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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EHOMEwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
82%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 20 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 17 games
65%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 13 games
54%

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 17 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 14 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 10 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 9 games
78%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 980 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
407 picks · 570 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 706 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 586 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
309 picks · 301 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
306 picks · 290 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
301 picks · 206 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
254 picks · 138 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total62% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
LGD Gaming 55%EHOME 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
43% · 34 games62% · 8 games
Arc WardenSylar
Arc Warden
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
49% · 209 games57% · 10 games
RazorXm
Razor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
48% · 31 game57% · 98 games
MarsChalice
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageXinQ
57% · 3 games50% · 107 games
Shadow ShamanFrisk
Shadow Shaman
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitiony`
50% · 28 games47% · 82 games
OraclexNova
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed21:34
LGD Gaming 57%EHOME 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNothingToSay
56% · 96 games47% · 17 games
DoomChalice
Doom
Wraith King
Wraith KingAme
57% · 83 games54% · 7 games
SpectreSylar
Spectre
Omniknight
OmniknightFaith_bian
67% · 7 games41% · 179 games
PuckXm
Puck
Snapfire
Snapfirey`
53% · 21 game53% · 24 games
Dark WillowFrisk
Dark Willow
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinXinQ
55% · 72 games40% · 52 games
Crystal MaidenxNova
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed16:24
LGD Gaming 58%EHOME 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkAme
54% · 25 games39% · 31 game
UrsaSylar
Ursa
Mars
MarsNothingToSay
58% · 163 games47% · 114 games
PuckXm
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
59% · 38 games46% · 49 games
TidehunterChalice
Tidehunter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageXinQ
50% · 4 games37% · 89 games
GrimstrokeFrisk
Grimstroke
Abaddon
Abaddony`
54% · 62 games61% · 9 games
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 62%
Series resultEHOME 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3