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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 4 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 4 games
75%

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
433 picks · 987 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
411 picks · 575 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
366 picks · 709 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
353 picks · 589 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 308 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
308 picks · 287 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 205 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
254 picks · 373 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:17
Natus Vincere 54%AS Monaco Gambit 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:29.
Game 2prediction correct18:17
Natus Vincere 54%AS Monaco Gambit 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 54%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2