Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Prosti Esliloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Prosti Esli
No games played over 6 months.
Fantastic Five
Dark Willow
Muka · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Muka · 3 games
Tusk
Muka · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
633 · 2 games
Grimstroke
633 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
433 picks · 988 bans
Void Spirit
412 picks · 575 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 710 bans
Mars
351 picks · 591 bans
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 309 bans
Grimstroke
306 picks · 288 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 205 bans
Pangolier
256 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% Prosti Esli
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Prosti Esli
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:41
Prosti Esli 69%Fantastic Five 31%
The model gave 69% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 42:07.
Game 2prediction missed11:34
Prosti Esli 69%Fantastic Five 31%
The model gave 69% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 30:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteProsti Esli · 69%
Series resultFantastic Five 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2