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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Demon Slayerloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Phoenix Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
43%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 6 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
80%

Demon Slayer

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Helios · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Helios · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddon
小郭嘉 · 1 game
0%
Bane
Bane
小郭嘉 · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Night · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
小郭嘉 · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
小郭嘉 · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
432 picks · 989 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
413 picks · 575 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 710 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 593 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 308 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
305 picks · 285 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 204 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 412 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:18
Phoenix Gaming 63%Demon Slayer 37%
The model gave 63% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
34% · 30 games58% · 86 games
Earth SpiritNight
Earth Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightXwy
49% · 26 games52% · 39 games
SnapfireHelios
Snapfire
Lion
LionpLAnet
52% · 52 games56% · 55 games
Clockwerk小郭嘉
Clockwerk
Grimstroke
Grimstrokezzq
41% · 72 games
Game 2prediction missed23:41
Phoenix Gaming 63%Demon Slayer 37%
The model gave 63% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Demon Slayer in 49:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXwy
51% · 53 games51% · 33 games
InvokerNight
Invoker
Huskar
Huskarshiro
little data51% · 75 games
PangolierHelios
Pangolier
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinpLAnet
56% · 36 games49% · 27 games
Snapfire小郭嘉
Snapfire
Oracle
Oraclezzq
42% · 46 games
Game 3prediction correct27:9
Phoenix Gaming 65%Demon Slayer 35%
The model gave 65% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 23:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealershiro
45% · 12 games52% · 68 games
PuckNight
Puck
Razor
RazorXwy
63% · 24 games49% · 55 games
LionHelios
Lion
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
44% · 80 games58% · 14 games
Dark Willow小郭嘉
Dark Willow
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionzzq
43% · 21 game
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 73%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3