Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSPecado Squad Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Keeper of the Lightsignature
yarintheslayer · 6 games
Marssignature
lukiluki · 6 games
Pucksignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Bloody Nine · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Dark Willow
yarintheslayer · 2 games
Pecado Squad Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
432 picks · 989 bans
Void Spirit
413 picks · 575 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 710 bans
Mars
350 picks · 593 bans
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 308 bans
Grimstroke
305 picks · 285 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 204 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 412 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 62%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect