Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportsloss 1:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 12 games
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 10 games
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 10 games
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
432 picks · 989 bans
Void Spirit
413 picks · 575 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 710 bans
Mars
350 picks · 593 bans
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 308 bans
Grimstroke
305 picks · 285 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 204 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 412 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 70%
Hero pool strength63% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 79%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect