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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Puppey · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zai · 5 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
40%

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 5 games
20%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Fata · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
429 picks · 986 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
417 picks · 575 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 708 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 588 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
311 picks · 305 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 201 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
302 picks · 281 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
255 picks · 412 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:11
Team Secret 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMATUMBAMAN
48% · 32 games47% · 73 games
Storm SpiritNine
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNisha
61% · 60 games47% · 7 games
Doom33
Doom
Axe
Axezai
50% · 10 games59% · 12 games
SpectreSkiter
Spectre
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
62% · 64 games49% · 48 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Oracle
OraclePuppey
47% · 75 games39% · 101 game
GrimstrokeFata
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed10:35
Team Secret 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMATUMBAMAN
38% · 13 games54% · 12 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyNisha
55% · 24 games50% · 75 games
PuckNine
Puck
Necrophos
Necrophoszai
57% · 3 games40% · 24 games
EnigmaSneyking
Enigma
Io
IoPuppey
62% · 31 game58% · 8 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Tusk
TuskYapzOr
46% · 48 gameslittle data
JakiroFata
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct34:9
Team Secret 60%Tundra Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMATUMBAMAN
little data51% · 34 games
Phantom AssassinSkiter
Phantom Assassin
Morphling
MorphlingNisha
51% · 27 games50% · 10 games
MagnusNine
Magnus
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerzai
49% · 8 games41% · 32 games
Bloodseeker33
Bloodseeker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePuppey
52% · 44 games48% · 29 games
SnapfireSneyking
Snapfire
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
59% · 26 gameslittle data
WarlockFata
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 67%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3