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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Incubus Club

Mars
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 7 games
29%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aretes · 6 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Benny · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 4 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 4 games
75%

Gorillaz-Pride

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Cara · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
d1smar · 5 games
20%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Cara · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaO · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
d1smar · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
429 picks · 984 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
415 picks · 575 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 707 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 586 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 305 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 201 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
301 picks · 280 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
255 picks · 411 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Incubus Club
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:26
Incubus Club 58%Gorillaz-Pride 42%
The model gave 58% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBerna
61% · 53 games45% · 26 games
Phantom LancerArgius
Phantom Lancer
Kunkka
KunkkaBlackSoul
53% · 22 games46% · 115 games
Void SpiritTaO
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBenjaz
58% · 23 games53% · 15 games
Legion CommanderGreedy
Legion Commander
Rubick
RubickCys
45% · 118 games50% · 8 games
Treant Protectorc4t
Treant Protector
Undying
UndyingAretes
50% · 24 games50% · 76 games
Nyx Assassind1smar
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed27:38
Incubus Club 57%Gorillaz-Pride 43%
The model gave 57% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkBerna
63% · 17 games54% · 12 games
BristlebackArgius
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBenjaz
61% · 36 games52% · 81 game
Void SpiritTaO
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyBlackSoul
51% · 46 games55% · 21 game
Dark SeerGreedy
Dark Seer
Snapfire
SnapfireCys
50% · 39 games39% · 79 games
Grimstrokec4t
Grimstroke
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAretes
48% · 130 games47% · 75 games
Earth Spiritd1smar
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 63%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2