Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 8 games
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
Lion
Lodine · 5 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
430 picks · 979 bans
Void Spirit
416 picks · 573 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 707 bans
Mars
347 picks · 587 bans
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
303 picks · 200 bans
Grimstroke
301 picks · 276 bans
Phoenix
255 picks · 413 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 73%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:33
Nemiga Gaming 48%Chicken Fighters 52%
The model gave 52% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 30:50.
Game 2prediction correct25:39
Nemiga Gaming 48%Chicken Fighters 52%
The model gave 52% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 33:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 52%
Series resultChicken Fighters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2