Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
432 picks · 980 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 573 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 709 bans
Mars
347 picks · 591 bans
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 302 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 198 bans
Grimstroke
301 picks · 275 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 412 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:33
Lilgun 40%T1 60%
The model gave 60% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 46:49.
Game 2prediction correct18:41
Lilgun 40%T1 60%
The model gave 60% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 28:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 60%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2