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Paragon Turbina · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 1:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Syntaxloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 20 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 14 games
29%
Largo
Largooften banned
kae · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 11 games
36%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 10 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
86 · 9 games
56%

Team Syntax

Tusk
Tusksignature
Stoic · 7 games
71%
Axe
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 3 games
100%
Largo
Largooften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Jeezy · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
emptiness · 2 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Stoic · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
497 picks · 355 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 233 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 638 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 346 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
318 picks · 228 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
298 picks · 395 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
295 picks · 287 bans
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 315 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Team Syntax
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Team Syntax
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:7
Team Spirit Academy 42%Team Syntax 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batrider86
52% · 116 games56% · 41 game
Dark Seeremptiness
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAidar
38% · 77 games56% · 62 games
LargoJeezy
Largo
53% · 90 games
ClockwerkStoic
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Syntax · 57%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1