Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
V-Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
V-Gaming
Marsoften banned
laise · 7 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
Malady · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
434 picks · 980 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 577 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 708 bans
Mars
346 picks · 595 bans
Earth Spirit
309 picks · 302 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 194 bans
Grimstroke
302 picks · 272 bans
Phoenix
262 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:21
Chicken Fighters 65%V-Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 35:52.
Game 2prediction missed31:42
Chicken Fighters 65%V-Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 49:37.
Game 3prediction missed25:15
Chicken Fighters 65%V-Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 32:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 65%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3