Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Ghost frogsloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ghost frogs
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
Mirana
MiLAN · 5 games
Grimstroke
j4 · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tobi · 3 games
Earth Spirit
MiLAN · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 3 games
Bane
j4 · 2 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
432 picks · 983 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 576 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 706 bans
Mars
345 picks · 594 bans
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
300 picks · 190 bans
Grimstroke
299 picks · 270 bans
Phoenix
263 picks · 408 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Ghost frogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ghost frogs 64%Chicken Fighters 36%
The model gave 64% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters.
Game 2prediction missed23:22
Ghost frogs 64%Chicken Fighters 36%
The model gave 64% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 34:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 64%
Series resultChicken Fighters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2