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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Trident Clanloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Trident Clan

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
SoulEater · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
antoha · 1 game
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Munkushi~ · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoulEater · 1 game
0%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
63%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 7 games
43%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 7 games
71%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 984 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
418 picks · 576 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 707 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 594 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 305 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
300 picks · 190 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
299 picks · 271 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
266 picks · 411 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:39
Trident Clan 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
56% · 5 games40% · 25 games
Phantom AssassinKiritych
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
54% · 37 games41% · 27 games
TinyAinkrad
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
51% · 47 games48% · 13 games
Legion CommanderTheChosenOne
Legion Commander
Mirana
MiranaSoulEater
64% · 45 games45% · 8 games
LinaHellscream
Lina
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonantoha
63% · 4 games44% · 65 games
GrimstrokeLodine
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct22:19
Trident Clan 35%Nemiga Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMunkushi~
57% · 67 games50% · 34 games
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Doom
DoomCorrupted
46% · 11 games56% · 121 game
MarsAinkrad
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
60% · 51 game54% · 26 games
Centaur WarrunnerTheChosenOne
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaSoulEater
48% · 66 games44% · 24 games
LinaHellscream
Lina
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeantoha
42% · 104 games42% · 94 games
TuskLodine
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 75%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2