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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Elephant

No games played over 6 months.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
82%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 17 games
65%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 982 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
418 picks · 576 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 705 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 592 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 306 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
301 picks · 190 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
300 picks · 268 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
268 picks · 407 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:11
Elephant 39%LGD Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:42.
Game 2prediction correct26:36
Elephant 39%LGD Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:41.
Game 3prediction correct27:19
Elephant 39%LGD Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 61%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3