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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
25%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
17%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
75%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 6 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 5 games
60%
Windranger
Windranger
Storm · 4 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Storm · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Storm · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 982 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
419 picks · 576 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 706 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 592 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 306 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
300 picks · 269 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
300 picks · 190 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
269 picks · 405 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% LBZS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:31
LBZS 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on LBZS — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageMS
43% · 10 games44% · 48 games
Storm SpiritStorm
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierIrving
57% · 17 games
Undying
Undyingxiaofu
54% · 9 games
Lion
LionCatYou
69% · 12 games
Game 2prediction correct31:9
LBZS 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 21:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageMS
little data61% · 10 games
LinaStorm
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawIrving
33% · 5 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkxiaofu
little data
Lion
LionCatYou
44% · 5 games
Game 3prediction missed37:35
LBZS 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 45:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMS
little data58% · 12 games
Templar AssassinStorm
Templar Assassin
Viper
ViperIrving
little data
Oracle
Oraclexiaofu
50% · 8 games
Tusk
TuskCatYou
25% · 4 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 53%
Series resultLBZS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3