Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Into The Breachloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
Tusksignature
Lodine · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
Lion
Lodine · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 5 games
Disruptor
Lodine · 4 games
Into The Breach
Rubick
Era · 2 games
Tiny
Supream^ · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Era · 1 game
Elder Titan
Chessie · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Charlie · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Era · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Chessie · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
437 picks · 980 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 576 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 704 bans
Mars
346 picks · 594 bans
Earth Spirit
309 picks · 305 bans
Grimstroke
299 picks · 267 bans
Tusk
299 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 405 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:33
Nemiga Gaming 60%Into The Breach 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:17.
Game 2prediction missed17:31
Nemiga Gaming 60%Into The Breach 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 37:19.
Game 3prediction correct23:12
Nemiga Gaming 60%Into The Breach 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 60%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3