Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ghost frogsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 11 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 11 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 10 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 10 games
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
Ghost frogs
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
Mirana
MiLAN · 5 games
Grimstroke
j4 · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tobi · 3 games
Earth Spirit
MiLAN · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 3 games
Bane
j4 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
440 picks · 984 bans
Void Spirit
420 picks · 578 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 706 bans
Mars
348 picks · 599 bans
Earth Spirit
313 picks · 305 bans
Grimstroke
301 picks · 268 bans
Tusk
299 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 81%
Hero pool strength52% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 59%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictioncorrect