Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Prosti Esliwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
Tusksignature
sayuw · 6 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
Prosti Esli
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
442 picks · 979 bans
Void Spirit
418 picks · 577 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 704 bans
Mars
347 picks · 601 bans
Earth Spirit
313 picks · 305 bans
Grimstroke
299 picks · 265 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 190 bans
Phoenix
274 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:22
Team Empire 52%Prosti Esli 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 28:50.
Game 2prediction missed10:18
Team Empire 52%Prosti Esli 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 41:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 52%
Series resultProsti Esli 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2