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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 7 games
86%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Khezcute · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 6 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
80%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Fbz · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
50%

Neon Esports

Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
440 picks · 979 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
417 picks · 580 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 704 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 598 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 306 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
299 picks · 263 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 188 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
274 picks · 403 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:28
BOOM Esports 43%Neon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
49% · 27 games46% · 19 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Visage
VisageDreamocel
little data46% · 145 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
64% · 108 games47% · 24 games
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Lion
LionHyde
41% · 100 games52% · 30 games
Elder TitanJaunuel
Elder Titan
Abaddon
AbaddonKhezcute
47% · 52 games51% · 69 games
Nyx AssassinPlayHard
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct24:49
BOOM Esports 43%Neon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 55:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikoto
53% · 95 games61% · 69 games
Wraith KingNatsumi
Wraith King
Morphling
MorphlingDreamocel
48% · 66 games47% · 142 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Doom
DoomFbz
49% · 25 games52% · 43 games
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Earthshaker
EarthshakerHyde
51% · 61 game42% · 19 games
Sand KingSkem
Sand King
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKhezcute
43% · 72 games48% · 46 games
MiranaPlayHard
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 63%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2