Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionSBSouth Built Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TMTeam Mysterywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South Built Esports
Gyrocopter
Abat · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Bob · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Bob · 1 game
Team Mystery
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
438 picks · 981 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 580 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 703 bans
Mars
348 picks · 600 bans
Earth Spirit
314 picks · 308 bans
Grimstroke
298 picks · 262 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
276 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% South Built Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% South Built Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
South Built Esports 62%Team Mystery 38%
The model gave 62% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by South Built Esports in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterAbat
JuggernautGhost
PuckBob
Dragon KnightMercury
AlchemistEnryu
Marsxiaoyu154
40% · 88 games
LionOhaiyo
39% · 56 games
TuskPonyo
Game 2prediction missed33:42
South Built Esports 61%Team Mystery 39%
The model gave 61% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by Team Mystery in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordAbat
LifestealerGhost
Templar AssassinBob
PangolierMercury
Dragon KnightEnryu
Legion Commanderxiaoyu154
45% · 45 games
GrimstrokeOhaiyo
45% · 38 games
PhoenixPonyo
Game 3prediction missed23:34
South Built Esports 59%Team Mystery 41%
The model gave 59% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by Team Mystery in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaAbat
MedusaGhost
LeshracBob
PuckMercury
AbaddonEnryu
Timbersawxiaoyu154
60% · 26 games
EarthshakerOhaiyo
45% · 53 games
TuskPonyo
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Built Esports · 69%
Series resultTeam Mystery 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3