Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unknown
Earth Spirit
Wij · 5 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 5 games
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 4 games
Earthshaker
Wij · 3 games
Thunder Awaken
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 10 games
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 10 games
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
441 picks · 982 bans
Void Spirit
419 picks · 584 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 702 bans
Mars
346 picks · 605 bans
Earth Spirit
317 picks · 307 bans
Grimstroke
298 picks · 260 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:20
Team Unknown 31%Thunder Awaken 69%
The model gave 69% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 27:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritRobo-Z
Wraith KingMnz
SlardarSacred
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
LionWij
TinyLeostyle
GrimstrokePrada
LinaMoOz
45% · 68 games
OracleMjz
Game 2prediction correct5:21
Team Unknown 31%Thunder Awaken 69%
The model gave 69% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 22:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritRobo-Z
JuggernautMnz
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
TidehunterFrank
SnapfireWij
MarsLeostyle
WarlockPrada
EnchantressMoOz
46% · 9 games
LinaMjz
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 80%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2