Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportsloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
V-Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cascade Esports
Rubick
jAMES · 11 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 7 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 4 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
V-Gaming
Marsoften banned
laise · 7 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
Malady · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
443 picks · 986 bans
Void Spirit
423 picks · 585 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 702 bans
Mars
347 picks · 610 bans
Earth Spirit
321 picks · 307 bans
Grimstroke
296 picks · 259 bans
Tusk
294 picks · 186 bans
Phoenix
280 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Cascade Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCascade Esports · 52%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed