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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team MagMaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 16 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 11 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 9 games
44%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 7 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 6 games
50%

Team MagMa

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
443 picks · 986 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
424 picks · 583 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 700 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 612 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 307 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
295 picks · 258 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 185 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 397 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% EHOME
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total72% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:12
EHOME 72%Team MagMa 28%
The model gave 72% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 23:34.
Game 2prediction missed22:37
EHOME 72%Team MagMa 28%
The model gave 72% on EHOME — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 36:01.
Game 3prediction correct21:11
EHOME 72%Team MagMa 28%
The model gave 72% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 32:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 72%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3