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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 12 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 8 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 8 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 7 games
71%

TNC Predator

Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Gabbi · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
Febby · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Febby · 3 games
100%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Armel · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
442 picks · 988 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
424 picks · 584 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
366 picks · 699 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 612 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 307 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
293 picks · 258 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 184 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 397 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:36
Omega Esports 55%TNC Predator 45%
The model gave 55% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorTino-
70% · 18 games63% · 4 games
SpectreGabbi
Spectre
Puck
PuckMac
52% · 139 games41% · 20 games
TinyArmel
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSam_H
69% · 20 games39% · 16 games
Legion CommanderBok
Legion Commander
Visage
Visagecml
little data46% · 55 games
GrimstrokeTims
Grimstroke
36% · 82 games
LionBoomy
Lion
Game 2prediction missed21:37
Omega Esports 51%TNC Predator 49%
The model gave 51% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinTino-
51% · 38 games49% · 21 game
BristlebackArmel
Bristleback
Snapfire
SnapfireMac
58% · 12 games50% · 14 games
Queen of PainGabbi
Queen of Pain
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSam_H
60% · 7 games63% · 24 games
ClockwerkBok
Clockwerk
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
49% · 75 games46% · 20 games
IoTims
Io
41% · 53 games
LionBoomy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 54%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2