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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Mysteryloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Mystery

No games played over 6 months.

Team SMG

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
20%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
443 picks · 989 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
425 picks · 584 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
366 picks · 699 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 612 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
324 picks · 307 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
293 picks · 259 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 184 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 397 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Mystery
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 52%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect