Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fightersloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
445 picks · 989 bans
Void Spirit
425 picks · 586 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 700 bans
Mars
350 picks · 612 bans
Earth Spirit
324 picks · 306 bans
Grimstroke
292 picks · 257 bans
Tusk
292 picks · 183 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 397 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:13
Chicken Fighters 59%Into The Breach 41%
The model gave 59% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 25:22.
Game 2prediction missed33:35
Chicken Fighters 59%Into The Breach 41%
The model gave 59% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 39:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 59%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2