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Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SuperNova · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
633 · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
633 · 1 game
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
633 · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Muka · 1 game
0%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 6 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 4 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
445 picks · 990 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
426 picks · 587 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
367 picks · 700 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 611 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
324 picks · 305 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
291 picks · 258 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 183 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
283 picks · 398 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 58%
Hero pool strength59% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:28
Fantastic Five 34%Nemiga Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 49:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSuperNova
58% · 29 games47% · 43 games
MorphlingKiritych
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAskold
42% · 38 games56% · 61 game
BeastmasterAinkrad
Beastmaster
Grimstroke
Grimstroke633
45% · 79 games53% · 11 games
Centaur WarrunnerTheChosenOne
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMuka
54% · 27 games49% · 58 games
LionHellscream
Lion
little data
OmniknightLodine
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct36:40
Fantastic Five 35%Nemiga Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 49:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAskold
52% · 145 games47% · 85 games
Troll WarlordKiritych
Troll Warlord
Viper
ViperSuperNova
60% · 31 game47% · 93 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskMuka
48% · 128 games56% · 51 game
Elder TitanHellscream
Elder Titan
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden633
48% · 36 games50% · 12 games
MagnusTheChosenOne
Magnus
47% · 99 games
GrimstrokeLodine
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 76%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2