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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Puppey · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
YapzOr · 5 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
60%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 18 games
83%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 16 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
445 picks · 987 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
426 picks · 587 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
367 picks · 699 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 608 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
324 picks · 305 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
291 picks · 256 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 183 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 397 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:10
Team Secret 48%Hellbear Smashers 52%
The model gave 52% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Team Secret in 27:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNisha
61% · 53 games37% · 20 games
MedusaAce
Medusa
Juggernaut
JuggernautMATUMBAMAN
47% · 32 games59% · 16 games
Queen of PainStormstormer
Queen of Pain
Magnus
Magnuszai
45% · 7 games45% · 7 games
LinaGilgir
Lina
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerYapzOr
36% · 7 games52% · 11 games
Sand KingMISERY
Sand King
Snapfire
SnapfirePuppey
48% · 13 games49% · 58 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct7:24
Team Secret 46%Hellbear Smashers 54%
The model gave 54% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNisha
little data44% · 12 games
MedusaAce
Medusa
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMATUMBAMAN
54% · 18 games72% · 13 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerzai
53% · 7 games71% · 10 games
AxeMISERY
Axe
Rubick
RubickYapzOr
43% · 48 games55% · 13 games
Dark WillowGilgir
Dark Willow
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterPuppey
little data40% · 25 games
AbaddontOfu
Abaddon
Game 3prediction missed40:15
Team Secret 46%Hellbear Smashers 54%
The model gave 54% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMATUMBAMAN
little data41% · 10 games
Naga SirenAce
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
41% · 53 games56% · 64 games
BeastmasterStormstormer
Beastmaster
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderzai
35% · 28 games56% · 66 games
PangolierMISERY
Pangolier
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
51% · 30 games58% · 67 games
PhoenixtOfu
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskYapzOr
50% · 102 games50% · 6 games
SnapfireGilgir
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 54%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3