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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Elephant

No games played over 6 months.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
XCJ · 9 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
September · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 6 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
September · 5 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
448 picks · 986 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
428 picks · 589 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
370 picks · 696 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 607 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 302 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 183 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
287 picks · 257 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
282 picks · 395 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Elephant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:24
Elephant 73%Sparking Arrow Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Elephant — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 55:30.
Game 2prediction missed14:28
Elephant 73%Sparking Arrow Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Elephant — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 25:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteElephant · 73%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2