Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DSDemon Slayerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Demon Slayer
Dark Willow
Helios · 2 games
Abaddon
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Bane
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Night · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
450 picks · 985 bans
Void Spirit
428 picks · 588 bans
Death Prophet
370 picks · 696 bans
Mars
351 picks · 607 bans
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 302 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 183 bans
Grimstroke
286 picks · 256 bans
Phoenix
283 picks · 394 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:27
CDEC Gaming 72%Demon Slayer 28%
The model gave 72% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Demon Slayer in 24:06.
Game 2prediction missed10:27
CDEC Gaming 72%Demon Slayer 28%
The model gave 72% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Demon Slayer in 24:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 72%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2