Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EgoBoysloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Benny · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
Grimstroke
Aretes · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
454 picks · 987 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 591 bans
Death Prophet
371 picks · 697 bans
Mars
352 picks · 610 bans
Earth Spirit
327 picks · 303 bans
Grimstroke
288 picks · 256 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 183 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 396 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Incubus Club
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:11
Incubus Club 50%EgoBoys 50%
The model gave 50% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 31:41.
Game 2prediction correct6:21
Incubus Club 50%EgoBoys 50%
The model gave 50% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 24:58.
Game 3prediction missed30:34
Incubus Club 50%EgoBoys 50%
The model gave 50% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 44:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 50%
Series resultIncubus Club 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3