Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs predictionCECyberLife eSportsloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Cascade Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CyberLife eSports
No games played over 6 months.
Cascade Esports
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
454 picks · 983 bans
Void Spirit
431 picks · 590 bans
Death Prophet
371 picks · 695 bans
Mars
350 picks · 609 bans
Earth Spirit
325 picks · 303 bans
Grimstroke
288 picks · 253 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 182 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 394 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% CyberLife eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Cascade Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:26
CyberLife eSports 46%Cascade Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanOtaker
Shadow FiendShisui
LinaBombad1l
Slark7jesu
TimbersawActor
Vengeful Spiritrostislav_999
48% · 51 game
Earth SpiritKaori
little data
BaneKidaro
Game 2prediction missed49:30
CyberLife eSports 48%Cascade Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Cascade Esports — the game was taken by CyberLife eSports in 48:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerOtaker
Monkey King7jesu
Storm SpiritBombad1l
BloodseekerShisui
TimbersawActor
Sand Kingrostislav_999
48% · 45 games
PhoenixKaori
51% · 16 games
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Game 3prediction missed15:33
CyberLife eSports 51%Cascade Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on CyberLife eSports — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterBombad1l
Drow Ranger7jesu
SpectreOtaker
RubickShisui
MarsActor
Bloodseekerrostislav_999
45% · 45 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
44% · 72 games
TuskKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteCascade Esports · 58%
Series resultCascade Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3