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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 24 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 19 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 18 games
56%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 16 games
75%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 38 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 37 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 32 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
554 picks · 910 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 402 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 655 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 614 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
411 picks · 873 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 609 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 503 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
359 picks · 214 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:34
Nigma Galaxy 64%Pipsqueak+4 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
50% · 269 games58% · 38 games
ClinkzDarkLord^
Clinkz
Kez
Kezrincyq
54% · 56 games48% · 173 games
BeastmasterCopy
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
50% · 141 game52% · 234 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
50% · 131 game38% · 159 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOmaR
67% · 35 games43% · 28 games
Omniknightaik
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed15:48
Nigma Galaxy 62%Pipsqueak+4 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterNo!ob
49% · 312 games50% · 391 game
BeastmasterCopy
Beastmaster
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerincyq
48% · 384 games57% · 68 games
ClinkzDarkLord^
Clinkz
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
51% · 463 games48% · 160 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Ringmaster
RingmasterOmaR
55% · 451 game46% · 619 games
TinyEkki
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderGH
53% · 278 games44% · 650 games
Jakiroaik
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 75%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2