?
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoTechiesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
36%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
30%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
43%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 7 games
29%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
[T]SA · 5 games
40%

NoTechies

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Solo · 6 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Zayac · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ergon · 5 games
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Zayac · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 4 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malik · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
454 picks · 981 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
430 picks · 589 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
371 picks · 695 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 609 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
325 picks · 301 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
288 picks · 252 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 181 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
279 picks · 394 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 25%
Hero pool strength51% NoTechies
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
B8 Esports 54%NoTechies 46%
The model gave 54% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 30:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistWatson
63% · 35 games50% · 6 games
Lunalayme
Luna
Invoker
InvokerDendi
44% · 33 games44% · 26 games
ViperEgor
Viper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLimitless
61% · 61 game44% · 110 games
MarsDkFogas
Mars
Phoenix
Phoenix[T]SA
55% · 78 games40% · 42 games
Witch DoctorSolo
Witch Doctor
Disruptor
Disruptornofear
53% · 24 games48% · 47 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Game 2prediction correct32:23
B8 Esports 51%NoTechies 49%
The model gave 51% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 45:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperDendi
45% · 53 games46% · 16 games
Troll Warlordlayme
Troll Warlord
Lifestealer
LifestealerWatson
51% · 34 games49% · 19 games
TimbersawDkFogas
Timbersaw
Magnus
MagnusLimitless
45% · 8 games54% · 36 games
Void SpiritEgor
Void Spirit
Lina
Lina[T]SA
43% · 29 games52% · 34 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Ogre Magi
Ogre Maginofear
48% · 27 games58% · 46 games
Marsxsvampire
Mars
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 53%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2