Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HFwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 16 games
Earth Spiritsignature
dEsire · 14 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Flash · 7 games
HF
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
452 picks · 981 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 589 bans
Death Prophet
370 picks · 693 bans
Mars
350 picks · 607 bans
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 181 bans
Grimstroke
287 picks · 251 bans
Phoenix
279 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:34
No Bounty Hunter 61%HF 39%
The model gave 61% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 29:08.
Game 2prediction missed29:44
No Bounty Hunter 61%HF 39%
The model gave 61% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by HF in 41:53.
Game 3prediction missed30:11
No Bounty Hunter 61%HF 39%
The model gave 61% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by HF in 35:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 61%
Series resultHF 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3