?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aster.Ariesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Phoenix Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
43%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
17%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%

Aster.Aries

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 8 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
14%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
20%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
450 picks · 983 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
430 picks · 590 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
371 picks · 694 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 605 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 298 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 181 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
286 picks · 249 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 390 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:33
Phoenix Gaming 52%Aster.Aries 48%
The model gave 52% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 1:03:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancershiro
46% · 29 games61% · 21 game
Phantom AssassinUlu
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckXwy
47% · 85 games55% · 67 games
Beastmasterphoenix
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMolasses
42% · 11 games25% · 8 games
Night Stalker生死
Night Stalker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionzzq
54% · 15 games52% · 58 games
TuskFantasy
Tusk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernpLAnet
46% · 14 games
Game 2prediction missed26:32
Phoenix Gaming 53%Aster.Aries 47%
The model gave 53% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckXwy
48% · 108 games52% · 67 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Spectre
Spectreshiro
60% · 6 games68% · 92 games
Beastmasterphoenix
Beastmaster
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMolasses
43% · 12 games55% · 24 games
Doom生死
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierpLAnet
45% · 82 games46% · 97 games
TuskFantasy
Tusk
Grimstroke
Grimstrokezzq
39% · 72 games
Game 3prediction missed36:25
Phoenix Gaming 49%Aster.Aries 51%
The model gave 51% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinshiro
32% · 13 gameslittle data
Chaos KnightUlu
Chaos Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXwy
73% · 7 games43% · 10 games
Linaphoenix
Lina
Mars
MarsMolasses
48% · 50 games66% · 30 games
Razor生死
Razor
Lion
LionpLAnet
39% · 31 game54% · 71 game
PhoenixFantasy
Phoenix
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterzzq
33% · 10 games
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 55%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3