Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragonloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Dragon
Marsoften banned
ghost · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
450 picks · 986 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 590 bans
Death Prophet
371 picks · 694 bans
Mars
350 picks · 608 bans
Earth Spirit
324 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 184 bans
Grimstroke
286 picks · 249 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 63%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect