PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SShindennloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 27 games
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 17 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
Shindenn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
551 picks · 907 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 401 bans
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 651 bans
Centaur Warrunner
479 picks · 611 bans
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 868 bans
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 606 bans
Mars
360 picks · 499 bans
Warlock
358 picks · 213 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:26
Heroic 96%Shindenn 4%
The model gave 96% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 37:25.
Game 2prediction correct29:19
Heroic 96%Shindenn 4%
The model gave 96% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 29:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 96%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2