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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
45%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 7 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
451 picks · 990 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
430 picks · 591 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
371 picks · 696 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
353 picks · 608 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
324 picks · 301 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
290 picks · 183 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
285 picks · 251 bans
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
279 picks · 391 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:33
AS Monaco Gambit 27%Team Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:45.
Game 2prediction correct15:37
AS Monaco Gambit 27%Team Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2